A year after the 7 October 2023 attacks, tensions between Lebanon and Israel have reached a critical point, marking a pivotal moment in an increasingly regionalised dynamic. Lebanon has grappled with years of instability, shaped by a combination of internal and external conflicts that have all contributed to the current crisis. This has resulted in over 11,000 incidents of political violence, with 3,516 people killed, and 14,929 injured since 8 October 2023, including at least 231 children killed. As of November 25, 2025, there were 899,725 internally displaced in the country of whom 51% are female and 49% male. The violence has heavily impacted civilians along the Blue Line, with widespread displacement, severe infrastructure damage, and allegations of international humanitarian law violations. Ground operations launched on 30 September 2024 further signify an escalation in the conflict, which has resulted in severe humanitarian impacts and heightened the risk of further regional instability.
Historically, years of brutal civil war (1975–1990), Syrian occupation, and recurring conflicts with Israel, including the devastating 2006 war, have left the country divided and vulnerable to external and internal shocks. Furthermore, the political environment in Lebanon has been unstable for the past few decades due to a governance system deeply rooted in sectarianism, which has fuelled decades of corruption, inefficiency, and lack of accountability. The state’s inability to function effectively has been further worsened by an ongoing economic collapse that began in 2019. Hyperinflation, a broken banking system, and the devaluation of the Lebanese pound have plunged a major part of the population into poverty, with many unable to access essential services such as healthcare, electricity, and education.
Additionally, after the spillover of the Syrian crisis, Lebanon currently hosts 1.7 million refugees, one of the highest per capita ratios in the world. Out of this, 1.5 million are Syrian. This significant refugee population has placed additional pressure on the country’s strained resources, increasing social tensions and competition over jobs, housing, and public services. Meanwhile, various reports suggest that Lebanon's humanitarian infrastructure struggles to address the needs of both its citizens and refugees, further deepening the crisis.
It is to be considered that the Lebanon-Israel conflict is deeply tied to regional dynamics, involving multiple state and non-state actors. The "axis of resistance," includes the Governments of Iran, and Syria and groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen's Houthis, oppose the Governments of Israel and U.S. influence. The Israeli government also faces multi-front engagements: the Gaza conflict with over 40,000 civilian casualties, increased West Bank violence, and airstrikes in Syria targeting Iran-backed groups which have killed at least 296 people since January 2024.
