Sudan Risk Analysis 2025

Partner(s)
H2H Network
Country
Sudan
Date
October 25, 2024
Type
Risk Analysis

Context


On April 15, 2023, fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Since the October 2021 coup, SAF -led by General Abel-Fattah Al Burhan- and RSF -led by Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti - ruled Sudan. The unstable alliance between the two groups, mostly fractured over the timeline of the dissolution of RSF troops and their integration into the army, ultimately collapsed. Another key sticking point was control of economic sectors: SAF invested in large-scale agriculture, weapon and ammunition production, and banking, while the RSF focused on private sector investments, gold mining, and smuggling in Darfur.

In the first six months of the conflict, the Khartoum state was the site of the most intense fighting, with inter-ethnic violence escalating in South Darfur from July 2023. Within this period, three-quarters of the recorded 9,000 casualties were caused by bombings in Khartoum (DFS-iMMAP Inc. 31/10/2023). This conflict has left approximately 25 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. According to IOM, over 10.8 million people have been displaced internally, and 2.3million have crossed the border since April 15, 2023. (IOM 20/08/2024, OCHA 21/12/2023).

Soaring food and fuel prices exacerbate the humanitarian crisis as a shrinking economy plunges many into poverty. Delivering aid remains extraordinarily difficult due to the protracted conflict, ongoing insecurity, theft of aid supplies, attacks on aid workers and responders, fuel shortages, and bureaucratic hurdles. These access constraints severely hamper cross-line and cross-border humanitarian operations (OCHA 08/08/2024).

Efforts to restart peace talks appear to have stalled, with neither side travelling to aUS-backed initiative in Switzerland. SAF declared they would not attend, citing that RSF had not met key conditions of last year’s Jeddah Declaration (a commitment to the safety of civilians and ensuring humanitarian access to affected populations. However, in one welcome development from the talks, it was announced on 15 August that the Adré border crossing would be opened for the first inter-agency cross-border transport of vital humanitarian aid through this corridor since February (UNHCR 24/08/24, BBC 14/08/2024, AA 24/07/2024, Govt Saudi Arabia 12/05/2023).

With little sign of de-escalation, the conflict continues to spread. ACLED reported over 420 political violence events and over 1,195 reported fatalities during the period from 6 July to 16 August 2024, with most of the violence recorded in Khartoum and North Darfur states. Over 7,230 events of political violence and more than 20,000 reported fatalities have been recorded since the start of the conflict in April 2023 (ACLED 23/08/2024).

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